Company Update / Consumer Discretionary / IJ / Click here for full PDF version
Author(s): Ryan Winipta ;Reggie Parengkuan
- reported Rp102bn adj. EBITDA loss on pro-forma basis in 1Q24, still on-track with management guidance of FY24F breakeven.
- However, we think the result was in-line as is on track to achieve adj. EBITDA breakeven in FY24F as 1Q is a seasonally soft quarter.
- Stable ODS GTV (vs. overall Indonesia GTV growth of +3% yoy) and on-track adj. EBITDA profitability underpin our Buy rating.
1Q24 pro-forma review: adj. EBITDA loss was well expected
On pro-forma basis, 1Q24 overall GTV, gross revenue, and net revenue stood at Rp116.5tr (+20% yoy), Rp4.2tr (+18% yoy), and Rp3.1tr (+63% yoy), respectively, while group adj. EBITDA loss stood at Rp102bn in 1Q24, still on-track with its guidance of FY24F adj. EBITDA breakeven as 1Q is a seasonally soft quarter, similar to historical precedents. Group gross take-rate in 1Q24 was flat yoy but group net take-rate expanded by 70bps yoy, respectively, thanks to efficiency in incentives and S&M expenses (Fig. 1). In addition, service fee from ShopTokopedia was on track with management guidance of US$40mn per annum as the achievement in Feb-24 & Mar-24 reached Rp110bn.
Segmental: ODS take-rate improved by +260bps yoy
On segmental basis, on-demand services (ODS)'s GTV was flattish on qoq/yoy basis at Rp14tr. While it was flattish yoy, note that last years' 1Q GTV was a high-base as incentives haven't been rationalized. ODS' gross take-rate expanded to 24.1% (+260bps yoy), resulting in gross-revenue increase of +12% yoy, while CM and adj. EBITDA grew to Rp815bn (+56% yoy) and Rp166bn (from Rp246bn loss), respectively. Fintech GTV grew by +7% qoq/+21% yoy to Rp111tr with core GTV (excl. merchant payment) grew by +40% yoy. Fintech's gross and net take-rate both slightly expanded by c.15bps on qoq and yoy basis, partly due to higher outstanding loans (+43% qoq/3x yoy) of Rp2.7tr as of 1Q24.
Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp105/share
We fine-tuned our FY24F/25F forecast as we incorporate 1Q24 result into our forecast in addition to carving-out e-commerce/GTL business from financial statement (Fig. 5); as well as introducing our FY26F forecast. We maintain our Buy rating and kept our SOTP -based TP of Rp105/share unchanged as the lower adj. EBITDA forecast vs. our initial expectation was solely due to eliminating Tokopedia & GoTo Logistics business from with no impact to our SOTP (Fig. 6). Re-rating catalysts include: 1) better than expected top-line growth for on-demand services (ODS) - we estimated c.+13% yoy growth in FY24F and growing profitability, and 2) share buyback, subject to approval in upcoming AGMS .
Sumber : IPS